War Planning for Tech Companies

The talk argues that tech companies should extend traditional risk management, business continuity and cyber resilience to include deliberate planning for a great power conflict. It opens by noting that regional conflicts in Ukraine and Israel showed how quickly the odds of wider war can change. Companies around the world responded with sudden moves such as exiting markets, cutting network transit and reworking infrastructure, none of which appear in standard continuity plans. An informal audience poll on the chance of a major power war within ten years is used to make the case that planning should start now.

The middle section frames the problem. The speakers propose a scale running from normal operations through degraded service and lost markets to the failure of partners and, finally, of civilization, and they describe factors that push an organization up that scale, such as exposure, dependence on third parties and a divided workforce. They suggest a generic war plan with tailored scenario plans, a cross-functional team that brings in legal and HR alongside continuity and security staff, and attention to effects like sanctions, staff mobilization, deliberate infrastructure destruction and the spread of exploits to criminals.

The closing part raises unresolved questions about picking sides, insider threats and whether a company should take offensive action, noting the legal limits under the law of armed conflict. The speakers shared a 17-page self-assessment checklist for estimating scenario probability and exposure, and they framed the session as a starting point for discussion rather than a finished method.