Andreas Baumhof - Are Quantum Computers Really A Threat To Cryptography?
Separates hype from reality on quantum computing's timeline for breaking current public-key cryptography.
Summary
Quantum Threat to Cryptography: Reality Check
Andreas Baumhof, CTO at QuSecure, presents a rigorous technical and timeline-based assessment of whether quantum computers pose a credible near-term threat to RSA, ECC, and other asymmetric cryptosystems.
Shor's Algorithm and the RSA Threat
The talk explains Shor's algorithm's theoretical ability to factor large integers in polynomial time on a fault-tolerant quantum computer. Current quantum hardware requires millions of physical qubits with low error rates to break 2048-bit RSA, far beyond today's ~50-qubit NISQ devices.
Timeline Analysis
Baumhof provides a structured timeline review: realistic projections place cryptographically relevant quantum computers 10–15+ years away, but the 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat model means adversaries may already be capturing encrypted traffic for future decryption.
Post-Quantum Cryptography Migration
The talk advocates for organizations to begin PQC migration planning now, covering NIST PQC standardization candidates (CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium), hybrid classical/PQC schemes, and inventory of crypto-agile dependencies.
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